Saturday, April 18, 2009

That don't make no sense! Wait maybe it does...

Well as everyone is aware (or should be) the NFL Draft starts in a week. Most experts do not predict any team to trade up to the #1 or anywhere among the top 5. I agree that it's probably not going to happen but it's fun to play the 'What if' game. So, let's do that now...

First we'll need our handy dandy NFL draft trade value guide We will need to check the values and for space, time and value purposes I'm going to limit this for the first 5 picks:
1 - 3000 Lions
2 - 2600 Rams
3 - 2200 Chiefs
4 - 1800 Seahawks
5 - 1700 Browns

Let's analzye for a moment the teams among the top 5 and whether they are likely to trade up for the #1 pick.

Rams - Rebuilding and no way they would give up the extra picks/players necessary.
Chiefs - Same as Rams.
Seahawks - No glaring needs can take best player available
Browns - Have 2 starting potential QBs with a New GM and coach who may want to shake things up.

So here is my trade scenario:

The Cleveland Browns trade the 5th, and 51st pick (2090 points per the trade value chart) and Brady Quinn to the Detroit Lions for the 1st and 129th selection(3043 points).

So I am valuing Brady Quinn as a mid 1st round pick (about 900 points) which is what he was.

Why this trade works? It gives the Browns thier pick of any draft choice (probably Matt Stafford) they solve their QB problem by letting Stafford sit behind Derrick Anderson. The Lions also solve their QB quest, with a QB who can come in and start tomorrow and still get a top 5 Pick to address a critical need (OT/DT/DE/LB) and won't need to feel the pressure of bringing along a rookie QB.

This solves problems and has major value for both teams and I don't see why this shouldn't happen but likely won't.

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