I love the NFL draft it is one of my favorite things about the NFL, and while mock drafts are efforts in futility, I enjoy reading them. Since I have a young child I doubt I will be able to live blog the draft as I have in the past, but here is how I think the first round will go (trades included):
1. Browns - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
The Browns take their QB of the future. Hopefully they have patience with Allen as I think he will need at least a year of sitting and learning, and two would probably be better.
2. Giants - Sam Darnold, QB, USC
All the podcasts I've listened to, and articles I've read say it's Bradley Chubb if Darnold is picked, but Darnold is here so the G-Men get their QB of the future.
3. Jets - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
The third QB in three picks. Jets get their QB of the future and someone who can learn from a solid vet. The only question is will Teddy Bridgewater be healthy and make this pick moot.
4. *TRADE* Bills - Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
The Bills I've heard really want Allen, but don't want to miss out on a potential franchise QB in Rosen whose arm is plenty strong enough to throw in the swirling wind of Buffalo. Buffalo sends
#12, 22, and #56 for #4 from the Browns. This is an over-pay as pick 4 is worth 1,800 points on the draft value chart and the Bills give up 2,320 points of value, but when going up for a QB teams are going to over-pay.
5. *TRADE* Cardinals - Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Another jump up for another QB. That's 5 QBs in the first 5 picks. This has never happened before and makes for a historic start to this first round. Jackson is my second favorite QB in the draft, and goes from one Cardinal team to a second. I think he can be electric and light the league on fire like DeShaun Watson did last year. Another over-pay on the draft value chart as the 5th pick is worth 1,700 points and the Cards trade #15, 47 (1,480 points), and a 1st and 4th next year (approx. 563 points) for a total of 2,043 points.
6. Colts - Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame
With their pick of the top three prospects in the draft the Colts go with Nelson to help protect franchise QB Andrew Luck. Bradley Chubb and Roquan Smith have to be in consideration but protecting Luck is the Colts' top priority.
7. Buccaneers - Saquan Barkley, RB, Penn State
The Bucs go with the top prospect in the draft here at 7 and fills the shoes left by Doug Martin's disappointing time in Tampa Bay, and Jameis Winston gets another weapon in his arsenal.
8. *TRADE* Dolphins - Vita Vea, DT, Washington
With Nelson gone to the Colts the Bears most logical choice is gone, so they trade back with the Dolphins. The Dolphins get the best DT in the draft to help shore up a middle-of-the-pack run defense and replace Ndamukong Suh. The Dolphins give up #11 and #73 in the third to move up. This is a slight over-pay on the draft value chart as the Dolphins picks are worth 1,475 points and #8 is worth 1,400.
9. 49ers - Bradley Chubb, EDGE, North Carolina State
A dream scenario that is only possible because of the 5 QBs taken, and Nelson going #6. The 49ers get the pass rush help their defense so desperately needs. Look for the 49ers to potentially trade former first round pick Arik Armstead for later round picks on Day 3 of the draft.
10. Raiders - Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
The Raiders get the best LB in the draft. Smith can cover, he can tackle, and if Chubb wasn't available for the 49ers he would've gone to them. Smith is a complete LB in today's NFL.
11. Bears - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
The Bears missed out on one Notre Dame offensive lineman to help protect their young QB, but they won't miss out on a second getting the top OT in the draft. It has been extensively noted that the former Notre Dame OL coach is now the OL coach for the Bears so getting a top OL from that school makes sense for the Bears.
12. Browns - Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
The Browns nab the best CB in the draft here at 12, and native son Denzel Ward stays in state. Ward's play and measurables are not quite as good as Marshawn Lattimore's were last year, but the Browns are thrilled to get Ward here after most prognosticators had him as a top 10 pick.
13. Washington Professional Football Team - Da'Ron Payne, DL, Alabama
For the second year in a row the WPFT picks an Alabama DL to help on their front 7. Payne will pair nicely with Johnathan Allen. I think the WPFT probably would want Vita Vea but he went to the Dolphins at #8.
14. Packers - Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama
The Packers get some much needed secondary help with this selection. Fitzpatrick is a versatile DB who can lineup at Safety or Corner.
15. Broncos - Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP
After their trade down the Broncos take who I consider to be the second best OL in the draft. Hernandez is a nasty road-grader who will help open things up for whomever will be carrying the ball for the Broncos this year.
16. Ravens - Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
In Ozzie Newsome's final pick as GM of the Ravens it was tempting to go with WR Calvin Ridley from Alabama, but Edumnds freakish atheletic ability and size make this a nice move for Baltimore. Edmunds is another do-it-all LB like Roquan Smith, he just needs more coaching up and will get that with the Ravens.
17. *TRADE* Patriots - Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State
The sixth quarterback taken in the first round ties an NFL record. The Pats move up to get the heir to Tom Brady. The Patriots trade #23 and #63 to move up six spots. That is 1,036 points in the draft value chart for the 17th pick which counts for 950 points in value. The only question is how much longer does Brady play and make this 1st rounder sit.
18. Seahawks - Derwin James, S, Florida State
The Seahawks take the versitile Seminole Safety. CB is a bigger need but the value of James at 18 is too much to pass up. James is a good pick to start the rebuild of the Seahawks secondary.
19. *Trade* Seahawks - Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College
With the previous selection of Derwin James, that signals the end of the line for Earl Thomas in Seattle. The Cowboys trade pick #19 straight up for Thomas who will help shore up a bad Cowboys secondary. Pete Carroll doubles down on defense and picks up a replacement for Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril.
20. Lions - Isiah Wynn, OL, Georgia
Wynn is a versatile lineman who can play G or T, and will help pave the way for LeGarrette Blount in Detroit further improving the Lions offensive line.
21. Bengals - Taven Bryan, DL, Florida
The Bengals pick up Bryan who could end up being the best interior DL in the draft. Bryan will backup Geno Atkins to begin with and probably come in on passing situations initially.
22. Browns - James Daniels, OL, Iowa
With Billy Price's injury concern Daniels moves up as the top C in the draft. Cleveland grabs a great addition to the interior of their offensive line.
23. Chargers - Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama
After trading back the Chargers grab the next best LB in the draft filling a vital need in the middle with a rangy LB who can cover. Denzel Perryman is a good run stopper but has struggled in coverage and the hope is Evans helps in that department.
24. Panthers - Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa
Jackson fills the need for a turnover making CB that fits their scheme. Jackson excels in zone coverage which the Panthers heavily run. Putting Jackson behind the Panthers LB core is going to cause headaches for other teams.
25. Titans - Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State
The Titans grab Vander Esch a sideline-to-sideline LB that they can plug into the middle of their D and provide some youth in an older LB corps.
26. Falcons - D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland
Moore is a speedy compliment to Julio Jones. This move allows the Falcons to move the trio of Julio, Sanu, and Moore around to provide the best matchups for Steve Sarkisian's offense.
27. Saints - Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State
The Saints wanted to bring back Jimmy Graham in Free Agency, but he went to Green Bay. So they get a Graham clone with the selection of Gesicki. Gesicki needs to gain some strength and refine his blocking but he'll be a monster in the middle of the field.
28. Steelers - Justin Reid, S, Stanford
The Steelers get a good young S in Reid at a position of need after releasing Mike Mitchell.
29. *TRADE* Browns - Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA
The Browns trade back into the first round to draft a bookend to Myles Garrett. Davenport is an explosive but raw prospect that can get after the QB. The Browns defense is significantly upgraded with the selections of Ward and Davenport. The Browns give up picks #35, 123, and 138 which is worth 636 points of value on the draft value chart the number 29 pick is worth 640 points so the Jaguars lose slight value with this trade.
30. Vikings - Connor Williams, OL, Texas
The Vikings invest in an OL upgrade for Kirk Cousins. Williams played Tackle at Texas but is slated to move inside in the NFL.
31. Patriots - Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA
The Patriots get their Nate Solder replacement here at 31. Miller will look to protect Brady in the present and Mason Rudolph in the future.
32. *TRADE* Colts - Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
The Colts trade back into the first round. With their first pick they helped protect Andrew Luck, and with their second pick they give him another weapon. Ridley is a smooth route-runner with good top-end speed and will be an excellent compliment to T.Y. Hilton. The #32 pick is worth 590 points on the draft value chart, and the Colts give up #37, and #104 which is worth 616 points on the value chart.
That's the end folks. In total we have 6 QBs taken, and 7 trades with a historic 5 QBs taken in a row. What do you think? What did I get right, and what did I get wrong? Let me know. At the time I finish this there are only 2.5 hours until the draft!
#Can'tWait #DraftDay #VontaeMackandnooneelse #MikeMikeMikeWhatDayIsIt
